Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Movie A at 50.0%, ahead of Movie B at 50.0%. $21K traded across 37 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AwardsMoviesOscarsCultureOscars 2027
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Movie A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie P | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie Q | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie R | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie S | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie T | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie U | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie V | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie W | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie X | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie Y | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie Z | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| The Birthday Gift | 26.7% | +26.6 |
| Agapito | 20.5% | 0.0 |
| Spilled Milk | 13.0% | -2.5 |
| Mary is Missing | 7.0% | +1.5 |
| Magan's Fare | 6.1% | +0.1 |
| Meeting Your Maker | 5.8% | +0.2 |
| 32B | 5.4% | +0.1 |
| The Man That I Wave At | 4.4% | +0.1 |
| Nightfaces | 2.9% | -0.1 |
| Pale Sun | 1.3% | -0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Movie A is the favorite at 50.0%, followed by Movie B at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on March 14, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $21K in total and $163 in the last 24 hours, with about $21K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.