Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is A Derailment at 67.5%, ahead of The Baddest Speechwriter of All at 67.0%. $53K traded across 10 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AwardsMoviesOscarsCultureOscars 2027
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| A Derailment | 67.5% | +12.0 |
| The Baddest Speechwriter of All | 67.0% | +1.0 |
| One Last Order | 51.5% | -1.5 |
| Water Cooler | 47.5% | 0.0 |
| A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil | 43.5% | -1.0 |
| The Tuners | 36.5% | +0.5 |
| A Wolf in the Suburbs | 34.0% | -2.5 |
| Oh Whale | 29.5% | +0.5 |
| We're Fine | 29.0% | -0.5 |
| Listen | 23.0% | -1.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations"?
- As of November 6, 2026, A Derailment is the favorite at 67.5%, followed by The Baddest Speechwriter of All at 67.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on March 15, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $53K in total and $100 in the last 24 hours, with about $4K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.