Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Julianne Moore at 97.2%, ahead of Inde Navarrette at 79.5%. $73K traded across 26 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AwardsMoviesOscarsCultureOscars 2027
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Julianne Moore | 97.2% | +0.1 |
| Inde Navarrette | 79.5% | -1.0 |
| Olivia Wilde | 70.0% | 0.0 |
| Sandra Hüller | 62.5% | -1.0 |
| Virginie Efira | 44.0% | -1.0 |
| Ruth Madeley | 36.5% | -4.5 |
| Renate Reinsve | 26.0% | 0.0 |
| Zendaya | 20.7% | -0.1 |
| Rosalind Eleazar | 16.5% | 0.0 |
| Sophie Okonedo | 10.8% | +0.9 |
| Emily Blunt | 10.6% | 0.0 |
| Anne Hathaway | 8.2% | +0.4 |
| Mikey Madison | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Lily Gladstone | 6.1% | +0.1 |
| Michelle Monaghan | 6.0% | +0.3 |
| Michelle Williams | 5.9% | -0.3 |
| Dakota Johnson | 5.9% | +0.7 |
| Scarlett Johansson | 5.1% | -0.1 |
| Natalie Portman | 5.0% | -0.3 |
| Penélope Cruz | 4.5% | -0.2 |
| Daisy Edgar-Jones | 4.5% | -0.9 |
| Laura Linney | 4.2% | 0.0 |
| Kirsten Dunst | 3.6% | -0.3 |
| Joan Collins | 3.4% | -0.4 |
| Cynthia Erivo | 3.0% | -0.1 |
| Shailene Woodley | 2.9% | -0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Julianne Moore is the favorite at 97.2%, followed by Inde Navarrette at 79.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on March 15, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $73K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $33K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.