Next ECB President?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

Christine Lagarde has announced that she will step down as President of the European Central Bank on February 7, 2027 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261029~abbb6dc64b.en.html). This market will resolve to the first individual who is formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank to succeed Christine Lagarde. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank by the European Council. A recommendation by the Council of the European Union alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or acting President of the European Central Bank will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market will immediately resolve to the formally appointed individual regardless of whether that individual subsequently takes office or whether another individual holds the office after the appointment. If no such President is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Council and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.