Next Country US Strikes: result and scorecard

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the announced/reported strike in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike. In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied: If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to