New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28?: result and scorecard

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States goes into effect for any amount of time by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States goes into effect. “Goes into effect" means the effective start date for the tariff must have begun without being further delayed or suspended. Any tariff which goes into effect after February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, will not count, regardless of the date on which it was ordered. Tariffs that were in effect prior to February 20, 2026 will not count. Later suspensions, reductions, or other limitations applied to a qualifying tariff after it goes into effect will have no impact on this market’s resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.