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Home / Markets / NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
Resolved market scorecard

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved October 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 76.0%; a week before, 37.0%. $13K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

October 31
resolved October 19, 2026

Price 1 day before

76.0%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

37.0%
30 days before: –

Volume

$13K
3 outcomes

NATOputinPolandRussiaPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
October 31WON$7K
October 15LOST$6K
September 30LOST$625

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-2310-0610-19
October 31October 15September 30
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 76% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Frequently asked questions

How did "NATO downs another Russian drone by...?" resolve?
It resolved October 31 around October 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 76.0% one day before close, 37.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$13K across 3 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.