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Home / Markets / NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
Resolved market scorecard

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved August 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 36.5%. $491K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

August 31
resolved August 23, 2026

Price 1 day before

100.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

36.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$491K
2 outcomes

NATOputinPolandRussiaPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
August 31WON$486K
July 31LOST$5K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-2708-0908-23
August 31July 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Frequently asked questions

How did "NATO downs another Russian drone by...?" resolve?
It resolved August 31 around August 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 36.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$491K across 2 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.