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Home / Markets / Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
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Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.5% (0.0 pts in 24h). $22K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.5%
No 97.5% · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -1.1

Volume

$22K
24h $0 · liquidity $808

Closes

January 8, 2027
63 days left

EarthquakesWeatherNatural Disasters

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes2.5% 0.0-1.1$22K2.3¢
No97.5% 0.0+1.1$22K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%04-0507-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.5% and No at 97.5%, on $22K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 8, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$22K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $808 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.