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Home / Markets / How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is 14–16 at 53.5%, ahead of 17–19 at 33.5%. $1.5M traded across 4 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

53.5%
14–16 · Trade →

24h move

+3.5
pts · 7d +2.5

Volume

$1.5M
24h $35K · liquidity $3K

Closes

January 8, 2027
63 days left

RecurringWeatherClimate & ScienceEarthquakesNatural Disasters

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
14–1653.5% +3.5+2.5$225K5.0¢
17–1933.5% -0.5-3.0$294K15.0¢
11–133.9% +0.1-1.3$425K6.2¢
20+3.9% -1.1-1.9$70K6.4¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-0106-0411-06
14–1617–1911–1320+

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 14–16 at 54% risks 54¢ to win 47¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?"?
As of November 6, 2026, 14–16 is the favorite at 53.5%, followed by 17–19 at 33.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 8, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$1.5M in total and $35K in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.