What will the biggest earthquake be on November 5, 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 6.1 or more at 53.6%, ahead of 5.7 to 5.8 at 48.1%. $2K traded across 6 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
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All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 or more | 53.6% | +31.1 |
| 5.7 to 5.8 | 48.1% | +33.7 |
| 5.9 to 6.0 | 48.0% | +36.0 |
| 5.3 to 5.4 | 45.6% | +28.5 |
| Under 5.3 | 2.1% | -18.9 |
| 5.5 to 5.6 | 2.1% | -15.4 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 5, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 5, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 5, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will the biggest earthquake be on November 5, 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 6.1 or more is the favorite at 53.6%, followed by 5.7 to 5.8 at 48.1%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 6, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $2K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $71 of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.