Who is favored in "Lai Ching-te visits US by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, June 30 is the favorite at 11.5%, followed by December 31 at 1.7%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$5K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $6K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

Live market data

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Lai Ching-te visits US by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is June 30 at 11.5%, ahead of December 31 at 1.7%. $5K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

11.5%

June 30 · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d +2.0

Volume

$5K

24h $0 · liquidity $6K

Closes

July 1, 2027

237 days left

China Trump Taiwan Politics Geopolitics

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
June 30	11.5%	0.0	+2.0	$3K	3.0¢
December 31	1.7%	-0.3	-0.4	$2K	0.5¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

June 30December 31

Market rules and resolution

If Lai Ching-te visits the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Lai Ching-te physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Lai Ching-te enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or Taiwan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30 at 12% risks 12¢ to win 89¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Lai Ching-te visits US by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, June 30 is the favorite at 11.5%, followed by December 31 at 1.7%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $5K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $6K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.