Resolved market scorecard
Human to human bird flu transmission before February?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.0%. $196K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved February 1, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.8%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.0%
30 days before: 96.1%
Volume
$196K
1 outcome
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more credible health organizations (e.g. CDC, WHO, etc.) claims an H5N1 bird flu case was transmitted from one human to another human by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from such a credible health organization, however in case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Human to human bird flu transmission before February?" resolve?
- It resolved No around January 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.0% one week before and 96.1% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $196K across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.