How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count. A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET. Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting, and may be established by information published after the specified time. In the event of ambiguity as to the number of carriers within the area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the relevant carriers' locations at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following November 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. Any carrier whose presence within the area at the specified time remains materially ambiguous at that point will not be counted. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.