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Home / Markets / How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?
Resolved market scorecard

How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?: result and scorecard

Resolved 475k to 500k. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 94.0%; a week before, –. $170K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

475k to 500k
resolved October 2, 2026

Price 1 day before

94.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$170K
9 outcomes

KPIsTechTeslaBig TechBusiness

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
475k to 500kWON$72K
450k to 475kLOST$37K
500k to 525kLOST$27K
425k to 450kLOST$24K
400k to 425kLOST$5K
525k to 550kLOST$3K
550k+LOST$1K
375k to 400kLOST$1K
<375kLOST$1K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-2609-2910-02
475k to 500k450k to 475k500k to 525k425k to 450k
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 94% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q3 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q3 2026 delivery figures by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Frequently asked questions

How did "How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?" resolve?
It resolved 475k to 500k around December 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 94.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$170K across 9 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.