How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?: result and scorecard
Resolved 475k to 500k. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 94.0%; a week before, –. $170K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| 475k to 500k | WON |
| 450k to 475k | LOST |
| 500k to 525k | LOST |
| 425k to 450k | LOST |
| 400k to 425k | LOST |
| 525k to 550k | LOST |
| 550k+ | LOST |
| 375k to 400k | LOST |
| <375k | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q3 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q3 2026 delivery figures by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?" resolve?
- It resolved 475k to 500k around December 1, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 94.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $170K across 9 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.