Resolved market scorecard
How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?: result and scorecard
Resolved 350k–375k. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 83.0%; a week before, 26.5%. $893K traded in total.
Result
350k–375k
resolved April 2, 2026
Price 1 day before
83.0%
Market leaned the right way
Price 7 days before
26.5%
30 days before: 12.5%
Volume
$893K
8 outcomes
KPIsBusinessElon MuskBig TechTech
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| 350k–375k | WON |
| <350k | LOST |
| 450k–475k | LOST |
| 375k–400k | LOST |
| 425k–450k | LOST |
| 475k–500k | LOST |
| 400k–425k | LOST |
| 500k+ | LOST |
Price history to resolution
350k–375k<350k450k–475k375k–400k
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 83% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" resolve?
- It resolved 350k–375k around March 31, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 83.0% one day before close, 26.5% one week before and 12.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $893K across 8 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.