First to list tokenized stocks in the US?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to the first of the listed platforms to make tokenized stocks available for purchase in the United States after September 17, 2026. If none of the listed platforms do so by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No listing by December 31, 2027". A tokenized stock means a blockchain-based token that represents one share, or a fraction of a share, of a stock or ETF listed on a U.S. national securities exchange (such as Nasdaq or the NYSE) and is either backed one-to-one by that security or is itself a share of that security recorded on a blockchain. Tokens tracking shares of private companies, synthetic or derivative products that track a stock's price without being backed by the underlying shares, and stablecoins will not count. Tokenized stocks are available on a platform when customers holding a U.S. account with that platform are able to buy at least one tokenized stock on that platform, regardless of subscription tier or account minimum. Availability to customers in at least one U.S. state will qualify. Availability limited to customers outside the United States, accredited investors, internal or employee testing, waitlists, and invite-only programs will not qualify. Purchases through a self-custodial wallet or a decentralized exchange, including one reached through the platform's app, will not count. Announcements alone will not qualify. If two or more listed platforms qualify on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the platform whose tokenized stocks became purchasable first; if that order cannot be established, to the platform that first publicly confirmed availability. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the platforms; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.