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Resolved market scorecard

Fed Decision in September?: result and scorecard

Resolved 25 bps increase. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 88.5%; a week before, 52.5%. $208.0M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:48 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

25 bps increase
resolved September 16, 2026

Price 1 day before

88.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

52.5%
30 days before: 29.5%

Volume

$208.0M
5 outcomes

fomcEconomic PolicyFed RatesJerome PowellPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
25 bps increaseWON$42.2M
No changeLOST$56.4M
25 bps decreaseLOST$56.3M
50+ bps increaseLOST$33.4M
50+ bps decreaseLOST$19.7M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%05-1407-1509-16
25 bps increaseNo change25 bps decrease50+ bps increase
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 89% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Fed Decision in September?" resolve?
It resolved 25 bps increase around September 16, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 88.5% one day before close, 52.5% one week before and 29.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$208.0M across 5 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.