F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship?: live odds and probabilities
Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 42.5% (+18.5 pts in 24h). $6K has traded on this market.
Yes probability
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42.5% | +18.5 |
| No | 57.5% | -18.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carlos Sainz is classified ahead of Fernando Alonso in the final official 2026 FIA Formula One World Drivers' Championship standings. This market will resolve to "No" if Fernando Alonso is classified ahead of Carlos Sainz. The final standings will be those published by the FIA at the conclusion of the 2026 season, including any tiebreakers applied under FIA rules and any penalties or adjustments reflected in that final classification. Both drivers will be ranked per that classification regardless of how many races either driver starts or completes. If the 2026 Formula One season is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no final classification is published within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the final classification does not rank both drivers, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds that F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship?
- As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 42.5% and No at 57.5%, on $6K of total volume.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 21, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $6K in total and $61 in the last 24 hours, with about $62 of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.