Resolved market scorecard
Biden D-Nom replacement? : result and scorecard
Resolved Kamala Harris. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.3%; a week before, 96.6%. $22.6M traded in total.
Result
Kamala Harris
resolved August 6, 2024
Price 1 day before
98.3%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
96.6%
30 days before: –
Volume
$22.6M
26 outcomes
deprec USA ElectionPoliticsDem Nominee
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | WON |
| Mitt Romney | LOST |
| Amy Klobuchar | LOST |
| Bernie Sanders | LOST |
| Other Man | LOST |
| Michelle Obama | LOST |
| Andy Beshear | LOST |
| Sherrod Brown | LOST |
| Raphael Warnock | LOST |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | LOST |
| Hillary Clinton | LOST |
| Elizabeth Warren | LOST |
| Wes Moore | LOST |
| Mark Cuban | LOST |
| Gretchen Whitmer | LOST |
| John Fetterman | LOST |
| J. B. Pritzker | LOST |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | LOST |
| Gavin Newsom | LOST |
| Josh Shapiro | LOST |
| Stacey Abrams | LOST |
| Joe Manchin | LOST |
| Mark Kelly | LOST |
| Pete Buttigieg | LOST |
| Roy Cooper | LOST |
| Other Woman | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Kamala HarrisMitt RomneyAmy KlobucharBernie Sanders
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This is a market on the likelihood of Joe Biden being replaced as the Democratic nominee for the presidential election.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Biden D-Nom replacement? " resolve?
- It resolved Kamala Harris around August 22, 2024.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.3% one day before close, 96.6% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $22.6M across 26 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.