Resolved market scorecard
Democratic candidates announce run for president before DNC?: result and scorecard
Resolved Kamala Harris. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 57.0%; a week before, 55.5%. $1.7M traded in total.
Result
Kamala Harris
resolved July 22, 2024
Price 1 day before
57.0%
Market was a coin flip
Price 7 days before
55.5%
30 days before: –
Volume
$1.7M
6 outcomes
deprec USA ElectionPoliticsDem Nominee
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | WON |
| Hillary Clinton | LOST |
| Gavin Newsom | LOST |
| Gretchen Whitmer | LOST |
| J. B. Pritzker | LOST |
| Josh Shapiro | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Kamala HarrisHillary ClintonGavin Newsom Gretchen Whitmer
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 57% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This is a market on whether Democratic candidates will announce their run for president before the Democratic National Convention.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Democratic candidates announce run for president before DNC?" resolve?
- It resolved Kamala Harris around August 18, 2024.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 57.0% one day before close, 55.5% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $1.7M across 6 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.