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Resolved market scorecard

Colombia Presidential Election: result and scorecard

Resolved Abelardo de la Espriella. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.4%; a week before, 87.5%. $44.4M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:54 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Abelardo de la Espriella
resolved June 24, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.4%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

87.5%
30 days before: 66.5%

Volume

$44.4M
28 outcomes

Colombia ElectionColombiaPoliticsGlobal ElectionsElections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Abelardo de la EspriellaWON$6.9M
Candidate MOPEN$0
Iván Cepeda CastroLOST$7.3M
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)LOST$5.8M
Vicky Dávila (IND)LOST$3.0M
Paloma ValenciaLOST$2.9M
Mauricio CárdenasLOST$2.5M
Sergio Fajardo (DC)LOST$2.4M
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)LOST$1.9M
David Luna Sánchez (IND)LOST$1.9M
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)LOST$1.8M
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)LOST$1.5M
Enrique PeñalosaLOST$1.3M
Roy BarrerasLOST$1.2M
Claudia López (IND)LOST$1.2M
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)LOST$769K
Carlos Felipe CórdobaLOST$709K
Daniel QuinteroLOST$706K
Juan Carlos PinzónLOST$478K
Miguel Uribe Turbay (CD)LOST$25K
Person JLOST$0
Person KLOST$0
Person LLOST$0
OtherLOST$0
Candidate NLOST$0
Candidate OLOST$0
Candidate PLOST$0
Candidate QLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-3001-1006-24
Abelardo de la EspriellaIván Cepeda CastroGustavo Bolívar (HC)
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Colombia Presidential Election" resolve?
It resolved Abelardo de la Espriella around June 21, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.4% one day before close, 87.5% one week before and 66.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$44.4M across 28 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.