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Home / Markets / Border + Ukraine aid deal by Feb 9?
Resolved market scorecard

Border + Ukraine aid deal by Feb 9?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 96.3%. $75K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved February 10, 2024

Price 1 day before

99.7%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

96.3%
30 days before: –

Volume

$75K
1 outcome

AllGeopoliticsPoliticsUkraineborder issues

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$75K
NoWON$75K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-2602-0202-10
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Increasing public attention to American immigration policy has driven Republicans to ensure any potential Ukraine aid bill is paired with changes to US border law. A Ukraine aid / border deal was reportedly close to passing as of Jan 22 - however Donald Trump has publicly taken a hard stance against any compromise, jeopardizing the deal. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill containing changes/funding to US border security and at least $5 billion in aid to Ukraine is signed into law by February 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Funding for replenishment of US stocks sent to Ukraine counts as Ukraine aid. Note: A bill that only contains Ukraine aid, or only contains changes to US border law will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - a bill containing both must be signed into law by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes." The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Border + Ukraine aid deal by Feb 9?" resolve?
It resolved No around February 9, 2024.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 96.3% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$75K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.