LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / AfD wins the most seats in how many September state election
Resolved market scorecard

AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?: result and scorecard

Resolved 2. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 47.0%; a week before, 74.0%. $204K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

2
resolved September 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

47.0%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

74.0%
30 days before: 79.0%

Volume

$204K
4 outcomes

EuropeGermanyPoliticsElectionsdeprec German Election

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
2WON$83K
1LOST$60K
3LOST$46K
0LOST$16K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-0708-1409-21
2130
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 47% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.

Frequently asked questions

How did "AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?" resolve?
It resolved 2 around December 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 47.0% one day before close, 74.0% one week before and 79.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$204K across 4 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.