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5kt meteor strike in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 12.5% (-0.5 pts in 24h). $317K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

12.5%
No 87.5% · Trade →

24h move

-0.5
pts · 7d -2.5

Volume

$317K
24h $0 · liquidity $612

Closes

March 1, 2027
115 days left

RecurringClimate & SciencenasaSpaceNatural Disaster

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes12.5% -0.5-2.5$317K11.0¢
No87.5% +0.5+2.5$317K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-0106-0411-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 13% risks 13¢ to win 88¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, on $317K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on March 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$317K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $612 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.