30-year mortgage rate below 6% before election?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 98.0%. $36K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between October 6 and October 31, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previous available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable other credible reporting may be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "30-year mortgage rate below 6% before election?" resolve?
- It resolved No around October 31, 2024.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 98.0% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $36K across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.