Odds and pricing
Liquidity
How much can be bought or sold without moving the price, measured by the size of resting orders near the current price.
A market with $200,000 of resting bids and asks within a few cents of the mid can absorb a large order without a big price jump. A market with $2,000 of depth will swing several points on a modest trade, which is why thin markets show dramatic moves that mean little.
Polymarket reports a liquidity figure per market; Kalshi shows open interest and order book depth. Volume (what has traded) and liquidity (what can trade now) are different: a market can have high lifetime volume and an empty book today.
For reading probabilities, trust liquid markets. For trading, liquidity sets how much you can do at the price you see.
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Frequently asked questions
- What does "Liquidity" mean?
- How much can be bought or sold without moving the price, measured by the size of resting orders near the current price.
- Why does liquidity matter for prediction markets?
- For reading probabilities, trust liquid markets. For trading, liquidity sets how much you can do at the price you see.