How did "Will Ukraine receive F-16s by end of January?" resolve?

It resolved No around January 31, 2024.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 95.5% one day before close, 91.5% one week before and 66.0% one month before.

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Home / Markets / Will Ukraine receive F-16s by end of January?

Resolved market scorecard

Will Ukraine receive F-16s by end of January?: result and scorecard

Name: Will Ukraine receive F-16s by end of January? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 95.5%; a week before, 91.5%. $22K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved February 1, 2024

Price 1 day before

95.5%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

91.5%

30 days before: 66.0%

Volume

$22K

1 outcome

All Ukraine Military defense Politics

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$22K
No	WON	$22K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 96% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine receives any F-16s between December 1, 2023 and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Ukraine, however a definitive consensus of credible reporting will also be used. If it is unclear as to whether Ukraine has received F-16s by Jan 31, this market may stay open until is it definitely determined. If it is still unclear by Feb 29 ET whether Ukraine received F-16s by Jan 31, this market will resolve based on the most credible evidence available at the time.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Ukraine receive F-16s by end of January?" resolve?: It resolved No around January 31, 2024.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 95.5% one day before close, 91.5% one week before and 66.0% one month before.
How much was traded?: $22K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.