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Home / Markets / Will SCOTUS let drug users own guns?
Resolved market scorecard

Will SCOTUS let drug users own guns? : result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 55.0%; a week before, –. $2K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved June 18, 2026

Price 1 day before

55.0%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$2K
1 outcome

gunsPoliticsSupreme Court

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$2K
NoLOST$2K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-1706-1806-18
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 55% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The Supreme Court has heard arguments on the constitutionality of 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3), the federal statute that prohibits the possession of firearms by a person who “is an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance." This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that, in at least some cases, this law violates the Constitution of the United States by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the law is unconstitutional in some cases. Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant law may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. If a Supreme Court ruling clearly and finally upholds this law in all challenged applications, this market will resolve to 'No.' The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will SCOTUS let drug users own guns? " resolve?
It resolved Yes around July 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 55.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$2K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.