What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.9% one day before close, 99.1% one week before and 98.8% one month before.

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Home / Markets / Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C

Resolved market scorecard

Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher): result and scorecard

Name: Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.9%; a week before, 99.1%. $668K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved January 12, 2024

Price 1 day before

98.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.1%

30 days before: 98.8%

Volume

$668K

1 outcome

All Weather Science climate record temperatures

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$668K
No	LOST	$668K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher)" resolve?: It resolved Yes around December 31, 2023.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.9% one day before close, 99.1% one week before and 98.8% one month before.
How much was traded?: $668K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.