When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$2K in total and $40 in the last 24 hours, with about $592 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by N

Live market data

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 9.5% (-1.5 pts in 24h). $2K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

9.5%

No 90.5% · Trade →

24h move

-1.5

pts · 7d -2.5

Volume

$2K

24h $40 · liquidity $592

Closes

December 1, 2026

25 days left

Asia Finance Indonesia

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	9.5%	-1.5	-2.5	$2K	11.0¢
No	90.5%	+1.5	+2.5	$2K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 10% risks 10¢ to win 91¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 9.5% and No at 90.5%, on $2K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $2K in total and $40 in the last 24 hours, with about $592 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.