Resolved market scorecard
Will Donald Trump be the next Pope?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 97.5%. $440K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved May 8, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.9%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
97.5%
30 days before: –
Volume
$440K
1 outcome
New PopeTrumpCultureconclavepapal
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is announced as the next bishop of Rome after Pope Francis. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no new pope is announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will Donald Trump be the next Pope?" resolve?
- It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 97.5% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $440K across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.