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Live market data

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 36.0%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 12.0%. $8.1M traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

36.0%
December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-0.5
pts · 7d -6.5

Volume

$8.1M
24h $1K · liquidity $53K

Closes

January 1, 2028
421 days left

token launchCryptoPre-MarketBase

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 202736.0% -0.5-6.5$54K2.0¢
June 30, 202712.0% -2.0-6.5$30K2.0¢
December 31, 20262.6% 0.0-1.8$787K1.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-1905-1411-06
December 31, 2027June 30, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2027 at 36% risks 36¢ to win 64¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will Base launch a token by ___ ?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 36.0%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 12.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$8.1M in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $53K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.