Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone makes a public statement insulting Donald Trump at any point during the live broadcast of the 2026 Primetime Emmy Awards, scheduled for September 14, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement made on stage or during any other on-air segment of the broadcast, the direct language of which is captured in the live or recorded broadcast. Statements made off-air, backstage, or outside the broadcast window will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. A statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Donald Trump either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname, using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., "He isn't smart", "He has no judgment"). Disparaging him in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster president," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Donald Trump will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution source will be the official NBC/Peacock broadcast of the ceremony.