How did "Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around March 1, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.5% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?: result and scorecard

Name: Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 99.8%. $544K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved January 10, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.7%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.8%

30 days before: 98.5%

Volume

$544K

1 outcome

All Global Temp Culture climate Weather

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$544K
No	LOST	$544K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around March 1, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $544K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.