Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Elon Musk at 14.4%, ahead of Keonne Rodriguez at 13.0%. $613K traded across 28 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
SBFSam bankman freidPoliticsTrump
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 14.4% | -0.6 |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 13.0% | -0.5 |
| Ryan Salame | 12.5% | -1.0 |
| Stefan Brodie | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Himself | 5.9% | -0.8 |
| Daniel Penny | 5.9% | -0.1 |
| Steve Bannon | 5.8% | +0.9 |
| Donald Brodie | 5.0% | -0.5 |
| Roger Stone | 4.9% | -0.1 |
| Joe Exotic | 4.5% | -3.0 |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4.2% | 0.0 |
| Julian Assange | 4.0% | +0.1 |
| Matt Gaetz | 4.0% | -1.0 |
| Young Thug | 3.9% | -0.3 |
| Derek Chauvin | 3.9% | 0.0 |
| Edward Snowden | 3.8% | 0.0 |
| Diddy | 3.7% | -0.1 |
| Roger Ver | 3.5% | +0.8 |
| Eric Adams | 3.4% | -0.1 |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 3.3% | -0.3 |
| Nicolas Maduro | 3.3% | 0.0 |
| Antoine Massey | 3.0% | +0.1 |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 2.9% | -0.1 |
| Do Kwon | 2.9% | +0.1 |
| Andrew Tate | 2.6% | -1.3 |
| Martin Shkreli | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| Bob Menendez | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Hunter Biden | 2.4% | +0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Elon Musk is the favorite at 14.4%, followed by Keonne Rodriguez at 13.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $613K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $334K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.