Who will be arrested before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is John Brennan at 12.5%, ahead of James Comey at 8.3%. $669K traded across 24 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | 12.5% | -1.5 |
| James Comey | 8.3% | 0.0 |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 8.0% | -4.0 |
| James Clapper | 7.0% | -1.0 |
| Susan Rice | 6.0% | -1.5 |
| Candace Owens | 5.4% | +1.1 |
| Letitia James | 4.3% | -0.3 |
| Pam Bondi | 4.3% | -0.3 |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 4.2% | 0.0 |
| Lee Jun-seok | 4.0% | -0.1 |
| Tom Homan | 3.6% | 0.0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| Lisa Cook | 3.5% | +0.1 |
| Anthony Fauci | 3.2% | -0.7 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2.8% | -0.1 |
| Kash Patel | 2.7% | -0.1 |
| Adam Schiff | 2.6% | -0.1 |
| Gavin Newsom | 2.1% | -0.4 |
| Barack Obama | 2.1% | -0.3 |
| Loretta Lynch | 1.7% | -0.3 |
| Hillary Clinton | 1.6% | -0.2 |
| Bill Clinton | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Joe Biden | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| John Kerry | 1.3% | -0.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will be arrested before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, John Brennan is the favorite at 12.5%, followed by James Comey at 8.3%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $669K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $556K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.