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Resolved market scorecard

Who will applaud during the State of the Union : result and scorecard

Resolved Nancy Pelosi. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 69.5%; a week before, –. $188K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Nancy Pelosi
resolved February 25, 2026

Price 1 day before

69.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$188K
9 outcomes

SOTUTrumpPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Nancy PelosiWON$40K
Ilhan OmarWON$23K
Hakeem JeffriesWON$14K
John FettermanWON$12K
Chuck SchumerWON$12K
Thomas MassieWON$8K
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezLOST$47K
Bernie SandersLOST$21K
Mitch McConnellLOST$11K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-2302-2402-26
Nancy PelosiIlhan OmarHakeem JeffriesJohn Fetterman
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 70% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is seen applauding at any point during during Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address, scheduled for February 24, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The listed individual must be visibly clapping their hands together on the C-SPAN video feed to qualify. Other gestures, such as nodding, standing without clapping, or tapping hands on a surface, will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only applause from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his speech until the moment he finishes will qualify. Applause directly before or after will NOT qualify. If the 2026 address to Congress does not occur by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the C-SPAN video feed.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who will applaud during the State of the Union " resolve?
It resolved Nancy Pelosi around February 24, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 69.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$188K across 9 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.