How did "What country will next Pope be from?" resolve?

It resolved United States around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 2.3% one day before close, 2.8% one week before and – one month before.

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What country will next Pope be from?: result and scorecard

Name: What country will next Pope be from? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved United States. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 2.3%; a week before, 2.8%. $265K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

United States

resolved May 8, 2025

Price 1 day before

2.3%

Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

2.8%

30 days before: –

Volume

$265K

17 outcomes

New Pope Culture conclave papal

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
United States	WON	$22K
Italy	LOST	$159K
Hungary	LOST	$28K
Democratic Republic of the Congo	LOST	$20K
Ghana	LOST	$19K
Philippines	LOST	$17K
Country A	LOST	$0
Country B	LOST	$0
Country C	LOST	$0
Country D	LOST	$0
Country E	LOST	$0
Country F	LOST	$0
Country G	LOST	$0
Country H	LOST	$0
Country I	LOST	$0
Country J	LOST	$0
Other	LOST	$0

Price history to resolution

United StatesItalyHungaryDemocratic Republic of the Congo

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 2% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country from which the next person announced as the bishop of Rome after Pope Francis is from. The country where the next Pope was born will be used to determine which country they are from. If no new pope is announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "What country will next Pope be from?" resolve?: It resolved United States around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 2.3% one day before close, 2.8% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $265K across 17 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.