US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place before Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither an import of Russian diesel fuel to the United States nor Russia x Ukraine peace talks occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only imports of Russian diesel fuel to the United States after market creation will be considered. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The resolution source for whether Russian diesel fuel has been imported to the United States will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia x Ukraine peace talks will be considered to have taken place if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict after market creation. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countri