What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 18.5% one day before close, 18.0% one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight,

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UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card): result and scorecard

Name: UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev · Sean Strickland. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 18.5%; a week before, 18.0%. $14.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev · Sean Strickland

resolved May 10, 2026

Price 1 day before

18.5%

Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

18.0%

30 days before: –

Volume

$14.6M

11 outcomes

Sports UFC Games

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev · Sean Strickland	WON	$13.6M
Fight to Go the Distance?	WON	$209K
O/U 3.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$84K
O/U 1.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$10K
O/U 2.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$10K
O/U 0.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$3K
O/U 4.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$2K
Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev · Khamzat Chimaev	LOST	$13.6M
Chimaev to win by KO/TKO?	LOST	$265K
Strickland to win by KO/TKO?	LOST	$227K
Fight won by submission?	LOST	$105K
O/U 3.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$84K
Fight won by KO/TKO?	LOST	$48K
O/U 1.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$10K
O/U 2.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$10K
O/U 0.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$3K
O/U 4.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$2K

Price history to resolution

Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev · Sean StricklandFight to Go the Distance?O/U 3.5 Rounds · OverO/U 1.5 Rounds · Over

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 19% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Sean Strickland" if Sean Strickland is officially declared the winner of the fight against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Khamzat Chimaev" if Khamzat Chimaev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

How did "UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)" resolve?: It resolved Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev · Sean Strickland around May 10, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 18.5% one day before close, 18.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $14.6M across 11 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.