What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 69.5% one day before close, 66.5% one week before and 69.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main

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UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card): result and scorecard

Name: UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor · Max Holloway. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 69.5%; a week before, 66.5%. $18.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor · Max Holloway

resolved July 12, 2026

Price 1 day before

69.5%

Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

66.5%

30 days before: 69.5%

Volume

$18.6M

11 outcomes

Sports UFC Games UFC 329

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor · Max Holloway	WON	$17.5M
Holloway to win by KO/TKO?	WON	$356K
O/U 2.5 Rounds · Under	WON	$209K
Fight won by KO/TKO?	WON	$23K
O/U 0.5 Rounds · Under	WON	$12K
O/U 1.5 Rounds · Under	WON	$11K
O/U 4.5 Rounds · Under	WON	$5K
O/U 3.5 Rounds · Under	WON	$4K
Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor · Conor McGregor	LOST	$17.5M
McGregor to win by KO/TKO?	LOST	$287K
O/U 2.5 Rounds · Over	LOST	$209K
Fight won by submission?	LOST	$65K
Fight to Go the Distance?	LOST	$49K
O/U 0.5 Rounds · Over	LOST	$12K
O/U 1.5 Rounds · Over	LOST	$11K
O/U 4.5 Rounds · Over	LOST	$5K
O/U 3.5 Rounds · Over	LOST	$4K

Price history to resolution

Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor · Max HollowayHolloway to win by KO/TKO?O/U 2.5 Rounds · UnderFight won by KO/TKO?

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 70% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Max Holloway" if Max Holloway is officially declared the winner of the fight against Conor McGregor at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Conor McGregor" if Conor McGregor is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

How did "UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)" resolve?: It resolved Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor · Max Holloway around July 12, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 69.5% one day before close, 66.5% one week before and 69.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $18.6M across 11 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.