What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 58.0% one day before close, 61.0% one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight,

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UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card): result and scorecard

Name: UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape · Manel Kape. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 58.0%; a week before, 61.0%. $935K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape · Manel Kape

resolved June 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

58.0%

Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

61.0%

30 days before: –

Volume

$935K

11 outcomes

Sports UFC Games

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape · Manel Kape	WON	$905K
O/U 4.5 Rounds · Under	WON	$16K
Kape to win by KO/TKO?	WON	$2K
O/U 1.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$823
Fight won by KO/TKO?	WON	$370
O/U 0.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$275
O/U 3.5 Rounds · Under	WON	$188
O/U 2.5 Rounds · Over	WON	$14
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape · Kyoji Horiguchi	LOST	$905K
O/U 4.5 Rounds · Over	LOST	$16K
Fight to Go the Distance?	LOST	$10K
O/U 1.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$823
O/U 0.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$275
O/U 3.5 Rounds · Over	LOST	$188
Fight won by submission?	LOST	$110
Horiguchi to win by KO/TKO?	LOST	$51
O/U 2.5 Rounds · Under	LOST	$14

Price history to resolution

Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape · Manel KapeO/U 4.5 Rounds · UnderKape to win by KO/TKO?O/U 1.5 Rounds · Over

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 58% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Kyoji Horiguchi" if Kyoji Horiguchi is officially declared the winner of the fight against Manel Kape at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "Manel Kape" if Manel Kape is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

How did "UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)" resolve?: It resolved Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape · Manel Kape around June 21, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 58.0% one day before close, 61.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $935K across 11 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.