Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round): live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

The 2026 Maine general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Maine, and Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maine. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Troy Jackson’s vote share in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election falls below Hannah Pingree’s vote share in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.