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Home / Markets / SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Resolved market scorecard

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: result and scorecard

Resolved >$2T. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 68.0%; a week before, 63.5%. $20.1M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:55 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

>$2T
resolved June 12, 2026

Price 1 day before

68.0%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

63.5%
30 days before: 70.5%

Volume

$20.1M
16 outcomes

Big TechElon MuskIPOSpaceXIPOs

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
>$2TWON$3.3M
>$1.8TWON$2.1M
>$1TWON$1.1M
>$1.6TWON$1.1M
>$1.2TWON$746K
>$1.4TWON$706K
>$3TLOST$2.5M
>$2.2TLOST$2.3M
>$2.4TLOST$1.9M
>$2.6TLOST$1.2M
>$4TLOST$946K
>$2.8TLOST$798K
>$3.2TLOST$558K
>$3.8TLOST$289K
>$3.4TLOST$286K
>$3.6TLOST$213K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-1203-1306-12
>$2T>$1.8T>$1T>$1.6T
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 68% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Frequently asked questions

How did "SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?" resolve?
It resolved >$2T around December 31, 2027.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 68.0% one day before close, 63.5% one week before and 70.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$20.1M across 16 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.