Reserve Bank of India decision in December: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 25 bps increase at 74.5%, ahead of No Change at 14.5%. $30K traded across 5 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
RBIEconomyRecurringGlobal Ratesinterest rates
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 74.5% | -1.5 |
| No Change | 14.5% | -0.5 |
| 50+ bps increase | 8.5% | +1.5 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.3% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Reserve Bank of India decision in December"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 25 bps increase is the favorite at 74.5%, followed by No Change at 14.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $30K in total and $143 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.