Resolved market scorecard
Popular Vote Winner 2024: result and scorecard
Resolved Donald Trump. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 27.6%. $628.2M traded in total.
Result
Donald Trump
resolved November 11, 2024
Price 1 day before
99.7%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
27.6%
30 days before: 27.2%
Volume
$628.2M
17 outcomes
AllUS ElectionTrumpPoliticselection
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | WON |
| Kamala Harris | LOST |
| Hillary Clinton | LOST |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | LOST |
| Ron DeSantis | LOST |
| Michelle Obama | LOST |
| Other Democrat Politician | LOST |
| Other Republican Politician | LOST |
| Nikki Haley | LOST |
| Joe Biden | LOST |
| Gavin Newsom | LOST |
| AOC | LOST |
| Kanye West | LOST |
| Bernie Sanders | LOST |
| Chris Christie | LOST |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | LOST |
| Elizabeth Warren | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Donald TrumpKamala HarrisHillary ClintonRobert F. Kennedy Jr.
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This is a market on predicting the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Popular Vote Winner 2024" resolve?
- It resolved Donald Trump around November 4, 2024.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 27.6% one week before and 27.2% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $628.2M across 17 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.