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Home / Markets / Oscars: Best Actress
Resolved market scorecard

Oscars: Best Actress: result and scorecard

Resolved Mikey Madison – "Anora". One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 28.0%; a week before, 34.5%. $1.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Mikey Madison – "Anora"
resolved March 3, 2025

Price 1 day before

28.0%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

34.5%
30 days before: 25.5%

Volume

$1.5M
13 outcomes

OscarsMoviesCultureDepreciated5Awards

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Mikey Madison – "Anora"WON$293K
Demi Moore – "The Substance"LOST$427K
Cynthia Erivo – "Wicked"LOST$332K
Fernanda Torres – "I'm Still Here"LOST$248K
Karla Sofía Gascón – "Emilia Pérez"LOST$246K
Actress ALOST$0
Actress BLOST$0
Actress CLOST$0
Actress DLOST$0
Actress ELOST$0
Actress FLOST$0
Actress GLOST$0
Actress HLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-2202-1103-03
Mikey Madison – "Anora"Demi Moore – "The Substance"Cynthia Erivo – "Wicked"Fernanda Torres – "I'm Still Here"
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 28% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2025 the 97th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 2, 2025. The nominees are scheduled to be announced on January 23. This market will resolve according to the actress who wins the Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2025 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Oscars: Best Actress" resolve?
It resolved Mikey Madison – "Anora" around March 2, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 28.0% one day before close, 34.5% one week before and 25.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.5M across 13 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.