What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.9% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.

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# of views of Taylor Swift's "Elizabeth Taylor" video on week 1?: result and scorecard

Name: # of views of Taylor Swift's "Elizabeth Taylor" video on week 1? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved 3m+. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 97.9%; a week before, –. $268K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

3m+

resolved April 10, 2026

Price 1 day before

97.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

–

30 days before: –

Volume

$268K

6 outcomes

internet YouTube Taylor Swift Celebrities Culture

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
3m+	WON	$142K
<2m	LOST	$45K
2.75-3m	LOST	$30K
2.5-2.75m	LOST	$26K
2m-2.25m	LOST	$14K
2.25-2.5m	LOST	$9K

Price history to resolution

3m+<2m2.75-3m2.5-2.75m

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Taylor Swift released a new YouTube video for "Elizabeth Taylor" on April 2, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of views Taylor Swift's new "Elizabeth Taylor" YouTube video gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If the relevant video becomes permanently unavailable by April 9, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this is the YouTube video for "Elizabeth Taylor" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqbJT_vC0rs), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

Frequently asked questions

How did "# of views of Taylor Swift's "Elizabeth Taylor" video on week 1?" resolve?: It resolved 3m+ around April 9, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.9% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $268K across 6 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.