Resolved market scorecard
# of rounds to elect next Pope?: result and scorecard
Resolved 3–4. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 24.0%; a week before, 19.0%. $702K traded in total.
Result
3–4
resolved May 9, 2025
Price 1 day before
24.0%
Market leaned the wrong way
Price 7 days before
19.0%
30 days before: –
Volume
$702K
8 outcomes
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| 3–4 | WON |
| 5–6 | LOST |
| ≤2 | LOST |
| 20+ | LOST |
| 7–8 | LOST |
| 9–10 | LOST |
| 15–19 | LOST |
| 11–14 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
3–45–6≤220+
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 24% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of rounds of voting cast in the papal conclave that results in the election of the next bishop of Rome after Pope Francis. If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "# of rounds to elect next Pope?" resolve?
- It resolved 3–4 around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 24.0% one day before close, 19.0% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $702K across 8 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.